Analysis of Future Scenarios of Contemporary Wahhabism Using the Dator Method

This article employs James Dator's scenario-building model to examine the future of contemporary Wahhabism. As an Islamic intellectual school, Wahhabism has had both widespread influence on Muslim and non-Muslim societies and has faced serious challenges. The aim of this research is to outline possible, probable, desirable, and undesirable future scenarios for Wahhabism and to identify key influencing factors, particularly social and cultural developments. The findings suggest that redefining Wahhabi identity and improving interreligious relations can contribute to the formation of a desirable future, whereas extremism and continued religious tensions lay the groundwork for undesirable scenarios. The article emphasizes that understanding the future of Wahhabism requires a clear strategy grounded in authentic Islamic values and scientific principles. Such an approach can help contain the sedition (fitnah) of Wahhabism, prevent the emergence of new intellectual and religious crises, and provide an analytical framework for policymakers and researchers.